Murakami, K.（村上幸史） (2014). Absolute and relative judgments in relation to strength of belief in good luck. 「運の強さ」の信念に関する絶対的・相対的判断 Social Behavior and Personality, 42(7), 1105-1115. doi: 10.2224/sbp.2014.42.7.1105
Belief in Good Luck (BIGL) is a scale for belief in “strength of luck” and is perceived as a personal ability. However, this scale ignored those who recognized individual differences but perceived their own strength of luck as weak (“weak group”). In this study, I defined the weak group in terms of social comparison. Respondents answered questionnaires regarding “possibility” in two types of scenario, one in which the objective probability was the same, but the probability assigned to others differed, and for the occurrence of an uncertain event. The results indicated that, compared with those in the strong group, the weak group tended to elevate the likelihood of success by the assigned probability of others. Differences were also found in assessments for the occurrence of an uncertain event. The results point to the difficulty in measuring the idea of strength of luck as only one factor linked to strength or weakness.
「運の強さ」の信念の測定には”Belief in Good Luck”という尺度が広く用いられているが、この尺度には「個人差を認識する」ことと「自分の運が強いと認識する」こと」が一次元に仮定されており、「自分の運が弱いと認識する」者は無視されているという欠点がある。この両者を区別する意義として、本研究では「運が弱い」と認識する者は「運が強い」と認識する者と異なり、相対的な判断をしやすいという仮定を置いて、自己の確率は変わらないが、他者の確率が変化するようなシナリオを作成し、その予測を回答してもらった。その結果、ポジティブな結果を得ることの予測に関しては仮説を支持する結果が得られた。